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Rutherford Rule
Estimation of casualty distribution (red/yellow/green) in major incidents based on event type
major_incidentdisaster_medicineB
Clinical Purpose
Resource planning for 118 dispatch center, PEIMAF activation, initial healthcare load estimation
⚠️ Warnings and Limitations
Contraindications:
- •⚠️ Do NOT use as sole decision-making tool
- •⚠️ Historical data (1950s-80s): modern patterns may differ
- •⚠️ Does not incorporate modern passive safety (airbags, PPE, etc.)
- •⚠️ High variability for same event type in different contexts
Limitations:
- •🔬 Evidence Level B: historical-descriptive, not RCT
- •📅 Based on 1951-1990 data (United Kingdom/Belfast)
- •🌍 Italian validation: prefectural plans, not formal studies
- •📊 Rutherford-de Boer DSS: moderate correlation with outcomes (Bayram et al.)
- •🎯 Accuracy: wide ranges, useful for order of magnitude not precision
Parameter Input
Fill in all required fields to proceed with the calculation
Select the event type to determine the severity index (S)
Initial estimate of total involved (injured + uninjured). Initial reports typically overestimate.
Range: 1 - 10000 persone
Estimated number of deaths (black code). Leave empty if unknown.
Range: 0 - 1000 persone
Factors that modify the typical injury distribution
Fields completed: 0 / 2
📚 Special Notes
- 📊 Rutherford Formula: S = (Red + Yellow) / Green
- 📋 Quick estimate: Green ≈ N_total / (S + 1); Severe = N_total - Green
- 📊 Severe distribution: typically 1 Red : 3 Yellow (ratio 1:3)
- ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This is an INITIAL ESTIMATE for the first 5-10 minutes
- 🔄 UPDATE as soon as real data arrives from DSS/first team (METHANE)
- 📈 Known bias: man-made events → initially overestimated; natural disasters → underestimated